How each one heats
A gas furnace burns natural gas and blows the heat through your ducts. A heat pump uses electricity to move heat from the outdoor air into your home, the same way an air conditioner moves heat out in summer. Because it moves heat rather than making it, a heat pump can deliver two to four units of heat for every unit of electricity it uses in Fremont’s typical winter weather.
| Heat pump | Gas furnace | |
|---|---|---|
| Installed cost (heating + cooling) | $12,000–$24,000 | $11,000–$19,000 with new AC |
| Installed cost (heating only) | n/a | $5,500–$10,000 |
| Provides cooling | Yes | No, needs separate AC |
| Typical lifespan | 15+ years | 18–25 years |
| Combustion / CO risk | None | Requires venting and CO alarms |
| Affected by 2029 Bay Area rule | No | New units manufactured from 2029 |
Fremont’s climate favors heat pumps
Average winter lows in Fremont sit in the low 40s, and hard freezes are rare. That is right in a modern variable-speed heat pump’s sweet spot. Heat pumps lose efficiency as it gets colder, but Fremont rarely asks them to work in the conditions where that matters. Homes near the bay in Ardenwood and Centerville see foggy, damp mornings, and the heat pump’s defrost cycle handles those routinely.
Operating cost
This is where the honest answer is “it depends.” PG&E electric rates are high, and gas is comparatively cheaper per unit of heat delivered. Homes with rooftop solar, or on an electrification-friendly rate plan, usually come out ahead with a heat pump. Homes without solar may see heating costs land close to even, with savings coming from replacing an older, inefficient AC at the same time. We model both bills for your actual home before you decide.
When a gas furnace still makes sense
- Your AC is less than 10 years old and working well, and you only need to replace the furnace
- Your electrical panel needs a costly upgrade that a furnace avoids
- You want a dual-fuel setup: a heat pump for most of the year, with gas backup
Next step
If your furnace is over 15 years old, ask for a heat pump quote and a furnace replacement quote on the same visit. You will see both prices, both estimated bills and the equipment we recommend for each.